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Commodities · 17 August 2026
Gold's advance to a fresh 20-day high near $4,480 is now backed by a managed-money long that grew…
Gold's advance to a fresh 20-day high near $4,480 is now backed by a managed-money long that grew 9,470 contracts in the week to 11 August, resolving the positioning-price disconnect flagged on 7 August, even as Wells Fargo trims its 2026 target range.
- What would prove it wrong
- If the next COT report shows gold's managed-money net long being trimmed while the prior week's position was expanded, the reading that the positioning-price disconnect has resolved is overturned.
- Next test
- the next CFTC Commitments of Traders report covering the week after 11 August 2026
- Status
- Retired · 1 September 2026
- How it settled
- The 3 August reading described Brent's managed-money long at the 83rd percentile of its three-year range with room to unwind; the 25 August COT report shows that long has fallen further, to the 44.9th percentile, well past the minimum trim the falsifier specified.
This is the desk’s own dated record, settled against market data. Descriptive of a research thesis, not investment advice.