Where the crowd stands, measured two ways: speculative futures positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, and disclosed short positions in GPW-listed companies from the KNF register. Positioning is a fragility reading, not a direction call: it shows how heavily a story is already subscribed.
Speculative futures positioning from the CFTC COT report, percentiled within its disclosed window and flagged when crowded, alongside disclosed GPW short positions from the KNF register.
The most stretched book is GOLD: the 100/100 percentile, net long 56.9% of open interest; 4 of 13 rostered markets read crowded.
Non-commercial net positioning as a share of open interest. The percentile places the latest reading within the report history held; readings in the outer deciles are flagged.
Latest report: 25 Aug 2026 · percentile window since 15 Jan 1986 · source: CFTC
Positioning stretch4 of 13 at an extreme
46elevated
0 = near norms · 100 = at the extreme
Speculative positioning across 13 futures contracts is elevated versus its own history since 15 Jan 1986.
How far each contract sits from its own historical median, equal-weighted. A fragility reading of the board, never a signal.
GOLDat range top
100/100 · percentile
net long 56.9% of open interest · adding to longs (+217 bp)
most stretched in the window (since 15 Jan 1986)
COPPERat range top
96/100 · percentile
net long 30.1% of open interest · adding to longs (+177 bp)
last more stretched 8 Dec 2020
CADat range bottom
6/100 · percentile
net short 36.9% of open interest · covering shorts (+711 bp)
last more stretched 18 Aug 2026
Net / OI · net short / net longPercentile in window · 0–100WoW
GOLDat range top56.9%100+217 bpadding to longs
COPPERat range top30.1%96+177 bpadding to longs
SILVER22.2%62+253 bpadding to longs
JPY-16.5%45-258 bpextending shorts
CHF-18.3%44+567 bpcovering shorts
NASDAQ3.3%40+682 bpadding to longs
S&P 500-3.3%35-281 bpextending shorts
AUD-13.3%33+199 bpextending shorts
EUR-4.4%33+290 bpcovering shorts
GBP-14.0%32+508 bpcovering shorts
RUSSELL-12.5%31-255 bpextending shorts
WTIat range bottom-1.9%7+19 bpcovering shorts
CADat range bottom-36.9%6+711 bpcovering shorts
GPW short interest: the KNF register
Disclosed net short positions of 0.5% or more in GPW-listed issuers, aggregated per issuer. The bar shows disclosed short interest as a share of issued capital.
20 disclosed positions · 11 issuers · register as of 4 Sept 2026 · source: KNF
MODIVO4.85%4 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Sept 2026
GRUPAAZOTY3.65%4 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Sept 2026
JSW2.36%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 2 Sept 2026
CRQUANTUM1.76%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 26 Aug 2026
BUDIMEX1.39%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 4 Aug 2026
ALLEGRO1.17%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 2 Sept 2026
CDPROJEKT1.13%2 disclosed position(s) · last change 1 Sept 2026
DINOPL1.00%1 disclosed position(s) · last change 2 Sept 2026
Percentiles are computed within the window stated above and firm up as history accrues. Futures data from the CFTC legacy futures-only series; short-register data from the public KNF register. Editorial presentation of public data; not investment advice.
Common questions
Which futures positions are the most crowded right now?
As of the 2026-08-25 COT report, positioning sits at an extreme (top or bottom decile of the available window) in: GOLD (100), COPPER (96), WTI (7), CAD (6). A crowded reading is a fragility observation, not a recommendation.
What is the COT report?
The Commitments of Traders report, published weekly by the CFTC, discloses futures positions by trader category. The non-commercial category proxies speculative positioning.
Does a crowded position mean the market will reverse?
No. A crowded reading describes how one-sided positioning is against its own history; it says the story is well-subscribed, not when it ends. Hawk Thorne publishes it as context, never as advice.
