Where each rate-setter stands, read from their own words. Every entry is an attributed public remark with its source and date; the stance scale runs dove to hawk and records the shift since the previous reading. An editorial interpretation of public statements, not advice.
Each policymaker's latest public remark, read on a 1–5 dove–hawk scale across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and NBP, with quote, date and source.
The Fed committee mean reads 3.6/5 on the dove–hawk scale across 5 tracked voices, while fed funds futures price a +46 bp move in the policy rate over the next 12 months.
Words and market pricing agree. No tension on the tape today.
“a rate hike is by no means necessary…”
“signaled support for a hold…”
Signals support for holding rates steady; dovish stance on near-term policy path.
“would be inclined to support holding interest rates steady this month if upcoming inflation data confirms that price pressures are easing…”
Signals openness to holding rates if inflation data shows disinflation; data-dependent but inclined toward pause.
“recent data suggested finally seeing some disinflation; Open to keeping policy accommodative…”
“inflation is a bigger concern than a cooling labor market…”
Prioritises inflation control over labor-market slack; hawkish tightening bias.
“the central bank will have work to do if policymakers do not gain sufficient confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target…”
Implies willingness to tighten further if inflation remains above target; hawkish conditionality.
“It may soon need to raise the range if annual inflation does not appear to be on a path back to 2%.”
“may soon need to raise the range if annual inflation does not appear to be on a path back to 2%…”
Conditional stance on rate hikes linked to inflation trajectory remaining elevated above target.
“on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditi…”
Warsh suggests financial conditions are not restrictive; leans dovish on rate hikes rationale.
“made a clear case for another rate increase…”
“expectation of a 25-basis-point increase in September…”
Schnabel signals expectation of 25bp rate hike; clearly hawkish policy stance.
“the Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated…”
Warns that geopolitical conflict is keeping core inflation elevated.
“war with Iran will likely keep 2026 inflation around 3%…”
“3% Eurozone inflation remains too high.”
Characterizes current inflation as unacceptably elevated, implying need for continued restrictive policy.
“the pace of consumer price increases in the Eurozone is likely to hold "well above" the ECB's 2% target this year due to the Iran war.”
Projects persistent above-target inflation driven by geopolitical risk; implies sustained policy restraint warranted.
“prepared to ease policy if inflation continues to decline toward its 2% target…”
“interest rates will continue to rise at a steady pace in the coming months to combat inflation…”
Signals continued rate increases to address above-target inflation; hawkish bias.
“interest rates will continue to rise at a steady pace in the coming months to combat inflation that remains well above the bank's 2% target…”
Lagarde signals sustained rate increases to combat above-target inflation.
“an energy shock caused by the Iran situation may cause inflation to rise and remain entrenched in the economy…”
“raising it did not be the beginning of a prolonged and aggressive series of increases…”
Advocates near-term rate increase to 4% without extended aggressive tightening thereafter; moderately hawkish.
“raising rates now could help reduce the chances of more aggressive hikes in the future…”
Advocates rate hikes now as preventive measure against future larger tightening; hawkish preemptive stance.
“The UK economy had shown signs of stronger growth, the labour market had stabilised and inflation had been a little stronger than expected.”
“Markets remain vulnerable to a potentially disorderly correction that could spread across borders.”
“the second-round effects of higher energy prices remained subdued…”
Assessment of muted second-round effects suggests less tightening pressure.
“The Bank of England is uncertain how transitory the price shock will be.”
Bailey expresses uncertainty about inflation persistence; balanced assessment of price pressures.
“His remarks about consecutive rate hikes and sharper margins were dramatic…”
“There is no need to limit rate hikes to roughly once every six months or to fix the size of increases at 0.25 percentage point…”
Signals flexibility toward larger and more frequent hikes including 50bp moves; clearly hawkish.
“it is possible that hikes will be decided in consecutive monetary policy meetings…”
Suggests acceleration in rate-hike pace to combat inflation; forward-looking hawkish signal.
“a rate hike is likely this month…”
“he would discuss the possibility of a rate hike at each policy meeting, including the next one on Sept. 17-18…”
Governor signals openness to rate hikes at each meeting; forward guidance suggests tightening bias.
“a rate hike is likely when the board convenes for a meeting later this month…”
Hints at likely rate hike at upcoming BOJ meeting; hawkish forward guidance.
“Upside risks to prices needed closer attention.”
“kept the door open to an increase this month…”
Himino signals openness to rate increase in September; lean hawkish stance.
“central bank remains vigilant to inflation risks and will discuss the need for further policy tightening…”
Himino signals vigilance on inflation and readiness to discuss further tightening.
“shifted towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts…”
“the decisive response of the National Bank of Poland to the megascale in recent years has allowed it to maintain long-term price stability…”
Claims monetary tightening was necessary and effective; implies confidence in past hawkish stance.
“Earlier signals from NBP Governor Adam Glapinski about possible rate cuts [are now] obsolete…”
Policy shift away from easing toward hawkishness due to re-accelerating inflation.
“real monetary policy continues to stimulate the economy…”
“there is no risk of an inflation explosion like in 2022, but the current level of inflation remains stimulative…”
Remark sees inflation risk as contained but acknowledges current stimulus, balancing concern with accommodation.
“the July's central bank's projection points to the next rate move being a cut, possibly still in 2026…”
“This is in my opinion the correct stance for monetary policy…”
Endorses the majority RPP view leaning toward rate cuts after the holidays or in H1 2027.
“having recently reaffirmed that stance…”
“the central bank was ready to intervene in the market if needed…”
Reiterates readiness for FX intervention as a policy tool, not a rate signal
Stance readings are Hawk Thorne’s editorial interpretation of attributed public remarks, with every source linked. Each committee mean is computed over its five most senior tracked voices (voting members first, then the most recently heard); the three most recent are shown. They characterise statements, not intentions, and are not investment advice.
'The Gap' is the difference between what a central bank committee SAYS (its dove-to-hawk lean, 1–5) and the rate path the market PRICES in futures. Hawk Thorne reads it end-of-day across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and NBP; the divergence itself is what to watch, not a forecast of who is right. It is an observation of what futures currently price, never a signal or a target.
Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve) is currently lean-dovish (2 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-04. Most recent remark: “a rate hike is by no means necessary…” (fxstreet.com).
Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) is currently lean-dovish (2.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-04. Most recent remark: “recent data suggested finally seeing some disinflation; Open to keeping policy accommodative…” (finance.yahoo.com).
Lisa Cook (Federal Reserve) is currently lean-hawkish (4 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-01. Most recent remark: “It may soon need to raise the range if annual inflation does not appear to be on a path back to 2%.” (finance.yahoo.com).
Isabel Schnabel (European Central Bank) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-01. Most recent remark: “made a clear case for another rate increase…” (tradingpedia.com).
Philip Lane (European Central Bank) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-08-19. Most recent remark: “war with Iran will likely keep 2026 inflation around 3%…” (fxstreet.com).
Christine Lagarde (European Central Bank) is currently lean-dovish (2 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-08-18. Most recent remark: “prepared to ease policy if inflation continues to decline toward its 2% target…” (bitcoinworld.co.in).
Adam Glapiński (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-03. Most recent remark: “shifted towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts…” (fxstreet.com).
Joanna Tyrowicz (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently lean-dovish (2 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-22. Most recent remark: “real monetary policy continues to stimulate the economy…” (pb.pl).
Gabriela Masłowska (Narodowy Bank Polski) is currently dovish (1.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-21. Most recent remark: “the July's central bank's projection points to the next rate move being a cut, possibly still in 2026…” (fxstreet.com).
Huw Pill (Bank of England) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-04. Most recent remark: “an energy shock caused by the Iran situation may cause inflation to rise and remain entrenched in the economy…” (sg.finance.yahoo.com).
Catherine Mann (Bank of England) is currently lean-hawkish (4 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-03. Most recent remark: “The UK economy had shown signs of stronger growth, the labour market had stabilised and inflation had been a little stronger than expected.” (fxstreet.com).
Andrew Bailey (Bank of England) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-02. Most recent remark: “Markets remain vulnerable to a potentially disorderly correction that could spread across borders.” (finance.yahoo.com).
Hajime Takata (Bank of Japan) is currently hawkish (5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-04. Most recent remark: “His remarks about consecutive rate hikes and sharper margins were dramatic…” (theglobeandmail.com).
Kazuo Ueda (Bank of Japan) is currently hawkish (4.5 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-04. Most recent remark: “a rate hike is likely this month…”.
Ryozo Himino (Bank of Japan) is currently lean-hawkish (4 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-09-01. Most recent remark: “Upside risks to prices needed closer attention.” (startupfortune.com).
Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank) is currently neutral (3 on a 1–5 dove-to-hawk scale) as of 2026-07-17. Most recent remark: “having recently reaffirmed that stance…” (sc.com).
