Back to Front Page4 SeptemberMacro & PolicyA jobs beat three times the forecast still can't wake up the VIX
Hawk Thorne Research3 SeptemberMacro & PolicyFed futures price a firmer path even as options market stays calm before payrolls
Hawk Thorne Research31 AugustMacro & PolicyDealers run short gamma into payrolls as the VIX prices none of the risk
Hawk Thorne Research24 AugustMacro & PolicyA Treasury supply glut, not corporate credit, explains this week's stress score
Hawk Thorne Research7 AugustCommoditiesA payrolls miss is driving gold higher, but the spec long is shrinking
Hawk Thorne Research1 AugustPolandWarsaw's banks shrug off a CPI rebound that argues against further NBP cuts
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research16 JulyPolandPoland hits its inflation target just as pump prices erase the win
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyCommoditiesSilver's 3.41% jump outpaces oil, handing Iran's risk premium to metals
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyFX & RatesDollar shorts unwind even as short-end yields hit a 17-month high
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 17% drop tests whether earnings misses are broadening past one stock
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyOil's Iran shock meets a labor slump ahead of the CPI print
Hawk Thorne Research13 JulyMacro & PolicyCrude's five-day bounce puts a hole in the CPI disinflation story
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyJapan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyA $134.2 billion Treasury drawdown is doing what soft housing data cannot
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rebound puts the Fed's hawkish minutes read back in question
Hawk Thorne Research9 JulyFX & RatesHawkish Fed minutes can't lift the Dollar Index off 100.90
Hawk Thorne Research8 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's slide tests the rate-cut story the desk has doubted since 3 July
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyA soft-patch in growth data is building while the market keeps pricing only liquidity
Hawk Thorne Research6 JulyMacro & PolicyGold's rally is no longer alone, but the bond market still won't sign off on it
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyGold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyThe supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
Hawk Thorne Research4 JulyMacro & PolicyThe Fed cannot cut on a jobless rate that fell because workers gave up looking
Hawk Thorne Research3 JulyMacro & PolicyThe regime downgrade the desk was waiting for just landed, and it argues for less conviction, not more
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyA 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyThe liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyFX & RatesEuro shorts build even as the front end of the Treasury curve stops betting on higher yields
Hawk Thorne Research1 JulyMacro & PolicyLiquidity is papering over a manufacturing slowdown that spans two continents
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