Back to Front Page4 SeptemberMacro & PolicyA jobs beat three times the forecast still can't wake up the VIX
Hawk Thorne Research31 AugustMacro & PolicyDealers run short gamma into payrolls as the VIX prices none of the risk
Hawk Thorne Research24 AugustEquitiesA record Nasdaq futures short unwinds just as the Composite slides
Hawk Thorne Research24 AugustMacro & PolicyA Treasury supply glut, not corporate credit, explains this week's stress score
Hawk Thorne Research18 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds' euro short hits a three-year extreme as the dollar keeps sliding
Hawk Thorne Research6 AugustFX & RatesLeveraged funds trim their 2-year Treasury short as the Fed path firms
Hawk Thorne Research30 JulyMacro & PolicyAuction supply, not the Fed, is what's keeping the 2-year yield this stretched
Hawk Thorne Research28 JulyMacro & PolicyIran's war premium drains out of crude while the 2-year yield stays put
Hawk Thorne Research24 JulyMacro & PolicyA 25.72% crude rally on Iran risk finds no echo in Treasury yields
Hawk Thorne Research23 JulyMacro & PolicyA $125.9bn issuance wave hits the tape before the 10-year auction even clears
Hawk Thorne Research20 JulyFX & RatesOne Treasury book, two convictions: shorts cover up front, deepen at the long end
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyFX & RatesFading Fed cut bets can't lift the dollar past a still-crowded euro short
Hawk Thorne Research17 JulyMacro & PolicyDisinflation loses the vote to fiscal supply and a fresh WTI high
Hawk Thorne Research15 JulyMacro & PolicySoft PPI and a China growth miss outvote a US strike on Iran
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyEquitiesIBM's 25% collapse confirms the miss, but the tape still calls it a one-off
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA cooler CPI print outlasts a live Hormuz blockade, but bonds aren't cheering
Hawk Thorne Research14 JulyMacro & PolicyA 3.8% CPI forecast collides with a bond market already betting against it
Hawk Thorne Research10 JulyMacro & PolicyJapan's PPI hits a 2026 high, but the tape isn't pricing it yet
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyGold is pricing Fed cuts that the bond market has not yet agreed to
Hawk Thorne Research5 JulyMacro & PolicyThe supply tsunami is here, but the bond market isn't punishing it, and that's the real signal
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyA 57,000 payroll miss just handed the supply-tsunami thesis its first real test, and it's failing on cue
Hawk Thorne Research2 JulyMacro & PolicyThe liquidity story just flipped, and risk assets haven't noticed yet
Hawk Thorne Research Credit · Hawk Thorne